Breaking Point – Last Chance To Control Our Borders

Britain is at Breaking Point

Despite fifteen years of promises from successive Conservative governments to reduce net migration to the "tens of thousands," the UK has instead seen the largest increase in migrant numbers in its history. Net migration exceeded 720,000 in 2024, and public dissatisfaction with immigration policy reached its highest recorded level, with 69% expressing dissatisfaction against just 9% satisfied.

Why Has Migration Increased Despite Brexit

The 2016 Brexit vote was widely understood as a mandate to reduce migration, yet net migration surged dramatically after Brexit was formalised in 2020 — rising from 184,000 in 2019 to 764,000 by 2022. The post-Brexit points-based immigration system, far from curbing numbers, expanded pathways for non-EU workers, particularly in lower-skilled shortage occupations. Contributing factors included Ukrainian refugee influxes, post-COVID student rebound, and dependent visa volumes.

Liberal Conservatism: The Ideology of Betrayal

A key driver behind the contradiction between Conservative rhetoric and policy outcomes is the influence of libertarian-leaning think tanks — including the IEA, Adam Smith Institute, and Centre for Policy Studies — which gained significant access to the Johnson government. These groups consistently advocated open immigration on economic grounds, prioritising business interests and free movement ideology over the expressed wishes of the British public.

The Student Visa Boom

International students became the largest single category of immigration, with student visa numbers growing 81% between 2019 and 2022 to reach 484,000. The Graduate Visa, introduced in 2021, grants two years of unrestricted work rights and has transformed universities into de facto immigration pathways. In 2023, 27% of Graduate Visa holders were unemployed for the entire year, and 63% of those employed worked only part-time.

The Drive for Cheap Labour

Economic migration has surged, with work visas growing 119% above 2019 levels by 2024. The most dramatic rise was in care worker visas, which increased from 2,493 in 2019 to 34,532 in 2022. The points-based system's expansion into lower-skilled sectors has discouraged investment in domestic training and automation, reinforcing a low-wage economic model while UK youth unemployment climbed from 12.4% to 14.5% between 2023 and 2024.

Humanitarian Visas

Humanitarian migration — including 150,000 Ukrainian visas in 2022 — contributed to the post-2019 spike but represents a very small share of total migration under normal circumstances. The report argues that targeting humanitarian visas would be neither effective nor appropriate as a means of reducing overall migration numbers.

Spouse and Family Visas

Spouse and family visas rose from around 40,000 annually before 2022 to roughly 80,000 thereafter, partly due to backlogs created by the prioritisation of humanitarian schemes. The report notes that family migration is largely downstream of primary work and student migration — addressing those routes would naturally reduce family visa volumes too.

The Underlying Crisis

High immigration has created downward wage pressure in low-paid sectors, strained housing, healthcare, and schools, and undermined social cohesion. Many migrants end up in shortage roles that domestic workers could fill with proper investment and training. Nearly 10% of migrants cannot speak English well or at all, slowing integration and generating community tension in high-migration areas.

Concluding Remarks

Pickthall House calls on the government to commit to reducing net migration to zero within two years through binding targets, a fixed quarterly permit system for employers and universities, mandatory domestic job advertising before foreign hires, tougher graduate employment standards for universities, and major investment in vocational training and apprenticeships.