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Türkiye as a Middle Power and Mediator in a Multipolar Order

An analysis of Türkiye's evolving role as a transactional middle power balancing NATO membership with strategic autonomy, covering its relations with the EU, Black Sea, Mediterranean, and Balkans, and what this means for British foreign policy.

AUTHORS

Pickthall House

PUBLISHED

December 13, 2025

PDF
TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Türkiye and the West

2. The Black Sea

3. The Mediterranean

4. Conclusion

KEY FINDINGS
  • Türkiye balances NATO membership with strategic autonomy, acting as both Western partner and competitor.
  • Türkiye mediates Russia-Ukraine tensions while maintaining economic back-channels to Moscow.
  • Britain must engage Türkiye pragmatically across energy, migration, defence, and Mediterranean stability.

    • Türkiye and the West

    ‍Türkiye's EU ties are anchored in the 1995 Customs Union, though accession talks have been frozen since 2018. As NATO's second-largest military power, Ankara pursues an increasingly transactional posture, asserting itself as a Middle Eastern and African power alongside its European identity.

    The Black Sea

    Türkiye mediates the Russia-Ukraine war — supplying drones to Kyiv, brokering the grain deal, and hosting peace talks while maintaining energy and trade back-channels to Moscow. Its control of the Straits makes it indispensable to regional security.

    The Mediterranean

    ‍Türkiye is shaping post-Assad Syria, contesting maritime boundaries with Greece, supporting Bosnian and Kosovar stability in the Balkans, and has become a Gaza ceasefire guarantor alongside the US, Egypt, and Qatar.

    Conclusion

    Britain must treat Türkiye as a necessary partner in energy transit, migration management, maritime security, and defence, while carefully managing diaspora soft-power influence and Ankara's pursuit of strategic autonomy.